The beginning of the third year of the war between Russia and Ukraine
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which is now in its third year, is still going on, but not as hot as the first days of the war and the first year.With its political and economic goals, America has been trying to maintain its hegemonic power in various ways recently by starting tensions and confrontations, and this war is one of those cases.America has engaged countries in war and supported them with arms aid, which it owes to that country, and by giving arms to reduce its debts, it has supported the country in question. America is currently the most indebted country in the world.The war between Ukraine and Russia and the protection of Ukraine, among other strategic goals, are part of this plan.As can be seen, after World War II, this is the bloodiest war, which has been at the highest level both in terms of human and economic losses and in terms of international effects.We do not consider the statistics that the United Nations has published regarding the killed, wounded, and displaced people of this war to be accurate and real, and the numbers of all these casualties and displacements are higher than what we know that this organization has published and according to the broadcast reports. Most of the casualties are from Ukrainians, which the daily news and various news sites have the same story. Russia is also not without casualties, because they have said for a long time that bread and halwa are not spared in war, but on the Russian side, the casualties are more among the military and civilians are less injured. and then we will talk about what we want to say in this connection. It should be noted that the following notes are daily notes taken from news and media reports. First of Ukraine:In the economic dimensionAccording to World Bank estimates, Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 30% in 2022. This is the biggest drop in GDP in the history of Ukraine.Direct damages of the war in Ukraine include the destruction of infrastructure, buildings and equipment. According to the World Bank report, the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure will reach more than 60 billion dollars in 2023. This destruction includes the destruction of bridges, roads, airports and residential and commercial buildings.Also, the indirect damages of the war in Ukraine include a decrease in production, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in exports. According to the World Bank report, the decrease in production in Ukraine in 2023 will reach more than 20 percent. A decrease in domestic demand.The increase in unemployment in Ukraine will reach more than 20% in 2023. This increase in unemployment is caused by the closure of factories and businesses and the withdrawal of foreign investors.The decrease in exports in Ukraine will reach more than 50% in 2023. This decrease in exports is due to the closure of ports and airports and the decrease in global demand. Regarding the consequences of the continuation of this war, we must state that: the war in Ukraine can have long-term consequences. This war can lead to a decrease in economic growth, an increase in poverty and inequality, and an increase in Ukraine’s vulnerability to external shocks. However, it can be predicted that if the situation improves in 2024 and the war ends, these negative effects will be seen in the country’s economy for years.Also, more than 3 million people of the Ukrainian population have been displaced due to the war, these displaced people have been resettled inside Ukraine and in neighboring countries, such as Poland, Romania and Hungary.Next, weaponsIn the last two years, in addition to its own assets, Ukraine has received billions of dollars in weapons from Western countries. These weapons include anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, artillery and drones.By using these weapons, Ukraine has also been able to damage the Russian army to some extent.In addition to human, economic and weapon losses, the war between Russia and Ukraine has caused a lot of damage to the country’s infrastructure, it is estimated that more than 100 billion dollars of Ukrainian infrastructure was destroyed in this war.Also, the war between Russia and Ukraine has caused a food crisis in the world, Ukraine is one of the largest grain exporters in the world, and the war has disrupted the country’s grain exports, which has increased food prices in the world, especially in Europe. .And Russia:Human casualties in Russia were mainly among the military. In the last two years, the Russian army has suffered relatively heavy losses in the war in Ukraine.In the economic dimensionAccording to World Bank estimates, Russia’s economy will shrink by 10% in 2022. This is the biggest drop in GDP in the history of Russia.Also, Western sanctions against Russia have increased the prices of goods and services in this country. This has reduced the purchasing power of the Russian people.Russia’s economic losses in 2023 have been relatively high due to the extensive sanctions imposed by Western countries. The direct damages of sanctions include the reduction of exports of energy and industrial goods, the interruption of imports and the withdrawal of foreign investors.The departure of foreign investors from Russia in 2023 was predicted to be about 50%, which proved to be unreal. This departure of investors was said to be due to concerns about the future of the Russian economy.And the indirect damages of sanctions include increased inflation, depreciation of the ruble and disruptions in supply chains. According to the report of the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Russia will reach more than 20% in 2023. This increase in inflation is caused by the increase in the price of imported goods. The reason for this is the decrease in the value of the ruble, which is also within the expected range, and the proof of this has not yet been practically observed.Another prediction is that the value of the Russian ruble will decrease by about 70% in 2023. This decrease in the value of the ruble is caused by sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign investors.Disruptions in Russian supply chains will continue in 2023. These disturbances are caused by sanctions and the war in Ukraine.These are all the predictions of the western media, none of which have come true yet, and it seems that Russia and its allies, who knew exactly that they were bringing NATO along with them, had a very accurate and strategic estimate and predicted the weakening of Russia economically and Or weapons will prove to be unrealistic in the short term.Next, weaponsIn the last two years, Russia has spent billions of dollars on weapons in the war in Ukraine. These weapons include tanks, armored personnel carriers, missile systems and airplanes.However, Russia has also suffered significant weapon casualties in the Ukraine war, according to Russian Defense Ministry estimates.Other casualtiesIn total, the Russian-Ukrainian war has brought many human, economic, weapons and other losses to the two countries. This war is still going on and it is not clear when it will end.The effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine in the world and EuropeThe war between Russia and Ukraine has had a wide impact on the world and Europe. This war has caused the world to face a new crisis.The war between Russia and Ukraine has increased the price of energy and food in the world, and this has increased inflation and reduced people’s purchasing power.Also, the war between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the global supply chain. This has caused an increase in the prices of goods and services in the world.Political influencesThe war between Russia and Ukraine has caused tension between Russia and the West. This tension has increased the possibility of a new cold war or much more destructive and destructive wars and even the eternal and complete fall of humanity.In some cases, we can also talk about insecurities. But a series of effects that are quite evident can be summarized as follows:• Increase in the price of energy and food: The war between Russia and Ukraine has increased the price of energy and food in Europe, and this has increased inflation and reduced the purchasing power of people.• Increase in insecurity: The war between Russia and Ukraine has increased insecurity in Europe, this war has caused European countries to try to strengthen their defense and take steps that can see the first spark of preparation in Germany.• Increasing the possibility of NATO expansion: The war between Russia and Ukraine has increased the possibility of NATO expansion to the east, and this has increased the tension between Russia and NATO.What we said above was an indication of the effects of this war, firstly at the level of both involved countries and secondly at the international level, especially in Europe, which imports most of the necessary fuel and grains from these two countries. But investigating these losses and casualties requires a comprehensive investigation, and now the short article that is going to be presented on the anniversary of this war does not have that capacity. Let’s talk about our own words:The question is why Russia has not ended this war despite its military and economic superiority?This question and the current situation forces us to take a look at strategic methods as discussed in strategy discussions:”In terms of offensive, there are eight plans and modes, the first of which is an attack that can be carried out before or after a military and political threat; surprise or deceptive attack; feigned attack or pseudo-attack; omissions and tricks; breakthrough Attrition of the enemy and finally pursuit.From the point of view of defense, there are six modes, which are: defense readiness mode, repelling an attack or a kind of evasion and avoiding confrontation, quick response or blow against blow, suspicious truce mode and creating fear and hope of the enemy, temporary truce or leaving the scene and finally The state of secession and temporary cessation of war.As far as real power is concerned, there are five types of superiority, which are: concentration, expansion and superiority, saving, aggravation and mitigation.Thus, a strategist has 19 components and different situations at his disposal, which must be placed next to each other and compared with each other in the light of time and place factors, and these factors actually form the scale of commands and the basis of decisions. K. Strategy and strategic procedures =Saram and Hosseini)In war debates and offensive and defensive strategies, these are scientific and standard methods that you can see in practice in the war between Russia and Ukraine.On the other hand, Lenin, who is one of the high-ranking and thoughtful leaders of the Russians, says: “The most reliable strategy in war is to delay the operation until the enemy forces lose their morale, and then, it is the right time to attack.” This position of the enemy makes the best position for a fatal blow both possible and easy. (Introduction to Strategy – Andre Bofer-p. 33)When we enter into the discussion of strategy, we see that according to the studies conducted by the researchers of this line, Lenin is one of the prominent strategists in the world, whose ideas are still used today, and we are on the side of Russia in the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to our own opinion. We observe exactly the same method and strategy.Russia’s method in this war and delaying the final outcome of the war, as it is studied, has brought down the supporters of this war, who are the so-called American faction, from the heat and heat of the beginning of the war, many countries that in the first days Especially from Europe, they had made big promises to Ukraine, but they mostly sat back and stopped helping, and I think It seems that little by little Ukraine will be left alone in this war.America, which seeks to maintain its hegemonic power through force and pressure, and during the past three decades has caused many disasters, especially in Asia, has practically failed in all cases, which we have written in detail many times.A scientist said that: the money that the colonizers spend in the war to expand their land, if they buy land, it will be more than what their goal is in the war. If America spends all these facilities for the comfort of humanity, it would not have the hatred it has towards itself in the hearts of the people of the world today. Rather, he ruled in the hearts.It is extremely difficult to determine the end date for the existing war, but what seems to be that during the past three decades, all the pressures applied by America in different countries have been the opposite of what America expected. For example: Forty years of embargo on Iran did not force Iran to submit to the US, but turned it into a military power not only in the region but also in the world. 9 years of bombing the Houthis in Yemen, although it was said that it was Saudi Arabia that bombed Yemen, but the reality was that it was American planes and American pilots who organized these attacks, but we see the result that today the Houthis Yemen has become a military power in the region and manly man stands against the aggression of America and Israel, and even an American ship in the Red Sea is not safe now, and the Houthis openly say that we have struck and will strike again. Efforts to reduce Russia’s military power and fuel the war in Ukraine once again made Russia a powerful global block, which is extremely difficult for America and its allies to claim the power of the global hegemon.The close alliances and relations between China, Iran, South Africa, India and a number of other powerful economic countries with Russia have practically made the dream of world hegemony disappear.The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS is actually the key to the destruction of America.Although America has been condemned to failure in all the operations it has carried out in the East, but recently the public support and support of Israel has made this country completely disgraced in the international mind. Israel, which is called a terrorist by different Muslim and non-Muslim countries, is America’s only supporter, both politically, financially, and militarily, which has become the biggest blow to America’s reputation.Our discussion is the war between Russia and Ukraine. We are on the threshold of the beginning of the third year of this war, the human and economic losses continue, and everyone in the world knows that if America stops supporting Ukraine, there will be no more war, and Russia has repeatedly announced that it is not seeking the destruction of Ukraine. This war caused millions of people in the world to be damaged and lose the ability to buy even their basic needs. Therefore, our wish is that the western world and other countries, instead of sending weapons that will escalate and continue the war, will take action to solve this problem or leave these two countries to their own situation, in which case we are sure that The implementation of each of these two proposals will put an end to this war of women, and otherwise, the responsibility of all these destructions will be on the shoulders of those who take steps to continue this war.
